A systematic outbreak investigation of SARS-CoV-2 transmission clusters in a tertiary academic care center (preprint)

Background We sought to decipher transmission pathways in healthcare-associated infections with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) within our hospital by epidemiological work-up and complementary whole genome sequencing (WGS). We report the findings of the four largest epidemiologic clusters of SARS-CoV-2 transmission occurring during the second wave of the pandemic from 11/2020-12/2020.Methods At the University Hospital Basel, Switzerland, systematic outbreak investigation is initiated at detection of any nosocomial case of Coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19), defined as polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection occurring more than five days after admission. Clusters of nosocomial infections, defined as the detection of at least two positive patients and/or healthcare workers (HCWs) within one week with an epidemiological link, were further investigated by WGS on respective strains.Results The four epidemiologic clusters included 40 patients and 60 HCWs. Sequencing data was available for 70% of all involved cases (28 patients and 42 HCWs), confirmed epidemiologically suspected in house transmission in 33 cases (47.1% of sequenced cases) and excluded transmission in the remaining 37 cases (52.9%). Among cases with identical strains, epidemiologic work-up suggested transmission mainly through a ward-based exposure (24/33, 72.7%), more commonly affecting HCWs (16/24, 66.7%) than patients (8/24, 33.3%), followed by transmission between patients (6/33, 18.2%), and among HCWs and patients (3/33, 9.1%, respectively two HCWs and one patient).Conclusions Phylogenetic analyses revealed important insights into transmission pathways supporting less than 50% of epidemiologically suspected SARS-CoV-2 transmissions. The remainder of cases most likely reflect community-acquired infection randomly detected by outbreak investigation. Notably, most transmissions occurred between HCWs, possibly indicating lower perception of the risk of infection during contacts among HCWs.

SARS-CoV-2 vaccine Alpha and Delta variant breakthrough infections are rare and mild, but happen relative early after vaccination (preprint)

IntroductionCOVID-19 vaccines significantly reduce SARS-CoV-2 (SCoV2)-related hospitalization and mortality in randomized controlled clinical trials, as well as in real-world effectiveness against different circulating SCoV2-lineages. However, some vaccine recipients show breakthrough infection and it remains unknown, which host and viral factors contribute to this risk and how many resulted in severe outcomes. Our aim was to identify demographic and clinical risk factors for SCoV2 breakthrough infections and severe disease in fully vaccinated individuals and to compare patient characteristics in breakthrough infections caused by SCoV2 Alpha or Delta variant. MethodsWe conducted an exploratory retrospective case-control study from 28th of December to 25th of October 2021 dominated by the Delta SCoV2 variant. All cases of infection had to be reported by law to the local health authorities. Vaccine recipients data was anonymously available from the national Vaccination Monitoring Data Lake and the main local vaccine center. We compared anonymized patients characteristics of breakthrough infection (n=492) to two overlapping control groups including all vaccine recipients from the Canton of Basel-City (group 1 n=126586 and group 2 n=109382). We also compared patients with breakthrough infection caused by the Alpha to Delta variant. We used different multivariate generalized linear models (GLM). ResultsWe found only 492/126586 (0.39%) vaccine recipients with a breakthrough infection after vaccination during the 10 months observational period. Most cases were asymptomatic or mild (478/492 97.2%) and only very few required hospitalization (14/492, 2.8%). The time to a positive SCoV2 test shows that most breakthrough infections occurred between a few days to about 170 days after full vaccination, with a median of 78 days (interquartile range, IQR 47-124 days). Factors associated with a lower odds for breakthrough infection were: age (OR 0.987, 95%CI 0.983-0.992), previous COVID-19 infection prior to vaccination (OR 0.296, 95%CI 0.117-0.606), and (self-declared) serious side-effects from previous vaccines (OR 0.289, 95%CI 0.033-1.035). Factors associated with a higher odds for breakthrough infection were: vaccination with the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine (OR 1.459, 95%CI 1.238-1.612), chronic disease as vaccine indication (OR 2.109, 95%CI 1.692-2.620), and healthcare workers (OR 1.404, 95%CI 1.042-1.860). We did not observe a significantly increased risk for immunosuppressed patients (OR 1.248, 95% CI 0.806-1.849). ConclusionsOur study shows that breakthrough infections are rare and show mild illness, but that it occurs early after vaccination with more than 50% of cases within 70 to 80 days post-full vaccination. This clearly implies that boost vaccination should be much earlier initiated compared to the currently communicated 180-day threshold. This has important implications especially for risk groups associated with more frequent breakthrough infections such as healthcare workers, and people in high-risk care facilities. Due to changes in the epidemiological dynamic with new variants emerging, continuous monitoring of breakthrough infections is helpful to provide evidence on booster vaccines and patient groups at risk for potential complications.

Evolution of COVID-19 mortality over time: results from the Swiss hospital surveillance system (CH-SUR) (preprint)

BackgroundWhen comparing the periods of time during and after the first wave of the ongoing SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 pandemic in Europe, the associated COVID-19 mortality seems to have decreased substantially. Various factors could explain this trend, including changes in demographic characteristics of infected persons, and the improvement of case management. To date, no study has been performed to investigate the evolution of COVID-19 in-hospital mortality in Switzerland, while also accounting for risk factors. MethodsWe investigated the trends in COVID-19 related mortality (in-hospital and in-intermediate/intensive-care) over time in Switzerland, from February 2020 to May 2021, comparing in particular the first and the second wave. We used data from the COVID-19 Hospital-based Surveillance (CH-SUR) database. We performed survival analyses adjusting for well-known risk factors of COVID-19 mortality (age, sex and comorbidities) and accounting for competing risk. ResultsOur analysis included 16,030 episodes recorded in CH-SUR, with 2,320 reported deaths due to COVID-19 (13.0% of included episodes). We found that overall in-hospital mortality was lower during the second wave of COVID-19 compared to the first wave (HR 0.71, 95% CI 0.69 - 0.72, p-value < 0.001), a decrease apparently not explained by changes in demographic characteristics of patients. In contrast, mortality in intermediate and intensive care significantly increased in the second wave compared to the first wave (HR 1.48, 95% CI 1.42 - 1.55, p-value < 0.001), with significant changes in the course of hospitalisation between the first and the second wave. ConclusionWe found that, in Switzerland, COVID-19 mortality decreased among hospitalised persons, whereas it increased among patients admitted to intermediate or intensive care, when comparing the second wave to the first wave. We put our findings in perspective with changes over time in case management, treatment strategy, hospital burden and non-pharmaceutical interventions. Further analyses of the potential effect of virus variants and of vaccination on mortality would be crucial to have a complete overview of COVID-19 mortality trends throughout the different phases of the pandemic.

Global surveillance of potential antiviral drug resistance in SARS-CoV-2: proof of concept focussing on the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (preprint)

Antiviral treatments for COVID-19 have involved many repurposed drugs. Currently, SARS-CoV-2 RNA-dependent RNA polymerase (RdRp, encoded by nsp12-nsp7-nsp8) has been targeted by numerous inhibitors with debated clinical impact. Among these, remdesivir has been conditionally approved for the treatment of COVID-19 patients. Although the emergence of antiviral resistance, an indirect proxy for antiviral efficacy, poses a considerable healthcare threat, an evolutionary perspective on emerging resistant mutants is still lacking. Here we show that SARS-CoV-2 RdRp is under purifying selection, that potential escape mutations are rare, and unlikely to lead to viral fitness loss. In more than 56,000 viral genomes from 105 countries dating from December 2019 to July 2020 we found negative selective pressure affecting nsp12 (Tajimas D = -2.62), with potential antiviral escape mutations in only 0.3% of sequenced genomes. Those affected known key residues, such as Nsp12:Val473 and Nsp12:Arg555. Of the potential escape mutations found globally, in silico structural models show that this rarely implies loss of stability in RdRp. No potential escape mutation were found in our local cohort of remdesivir treated patients from the first wave (n=8). Our results indicate that RdRp is a suitable drug target, and that remdesivir does not seem to exert high selective pressure. Our study could be the starting point of a larger monitoring effort of drug resistance throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. We recommend the application of repetitive genome sequencing of SARS-CoV-2 from patients treated with antivirals to provide early insights into the evolution or antiviral resistance.

Determinants of SARS-CoV-2 transmission to guide vaccination strategy in a city (preprint)

Transmission chains within cities provide an important contribution to case burden and economic impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and should be a major focus for preventive measures to achieve containment. Here, at very high spatio-temporal resolution, we analysed determinants of SARS-CoV-2 transmission in a medium-sized European city. We combined detailed epidemiological, mobility, and socioeconomic data-sets with whole genome sequencing during the first SARS-CoV-2 wave. Both phylogenetic clustering and compartmental modelling analysis were performed based on the dominating viral variant (B.1-C15324T; 60% of all cases). Here we show that transmissions on the city population level are driven by the socioeconomically weaker and highly mobile groups. Simulated vaccination scenarios showed that vaccination of a third of the population at 90% efficacy prioritising the latter groups would induce a stronger preventive effect compared to vaccinating exclusively senior population groups first. Our analysis accounts for both social interaction and mobility on the basis of molecularly related cases, thereby providing high confidence estimates of the underlying epidemic dynamics that may readily be translatable to other municipal areas.

Modelling conformational state dynamics and its role on infection for SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein variants (preprint)

The COVID-19 pandemic has greatly affected us all, from individuals to the world economy. Whereas great advances have been achieved in record time, a lot remains to be learned about the infection mechanisms of its causative agent, the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. The Spike protein interacts with the human angiotensin converting enzyme 2 receptor as part of the viral entry mechanism. To do so, the receptor binding domain (RBD) of Spike needs to be in an open state conformation. Here we utilise coarse-grained normal mode analyses to model the dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein and the transition probabilities between open and closed conformations for the wild type, the D614G mutant as well other variants isolated experimentally. We proceed to perform several possible in silico single mutations of Spike, 17081 in total, to determine positions and specific Spike mutations that may affect the occupancy of the open and closed states. We estimate transition probabilities between the open and closed states from the calculated normal modes. Transition probabilities are employed in a Markov model to determine conformational state occupancies. Our results correctly model a shift in occupancy of the more infectious D614G strain towards higher occupancy of the open state via an increase of flexibility of the closed state and concomitant decrease of flexibility of the open state. Our results also suggest that the N501Y mutation recently observed, drastically increases the occupancy of the open state. We utilize global vibrational entropy differences to select candidate single point mutations that affect the flexibility of the open and closed states and confirm that these lead to shifts in occupancies for the most critical mutations. Among those, we observe a number of mutations on Glycine residues (404, 416, 504) and G252 in particular accepting a number of mutations. Other residues include K417, D467 and N501. This is, to our knowledge, the first use of normal mode analysis to model conformational state transitions and the effect of mutations thereon. The specific mutations of Spike identified here, while still requiring experimental validation, may guide future studies to increase our understanding of SARS-CoV-2 infection mechanisms as well as guide public health in their surveillance efforts.

Suppression of miR-155 attenuates lung cytokine storm induced by SARS-CoV-2 infection in human ACE2-transgenic mice (preprint)

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a recent global pandemic. It is a deadly human viral disease, caused by the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), with a high rate of infection, morbidity and mortality. Therefore, there is a great urgency to develop new therapies to control, treat and prevent this disease. Endogenous microRNAs (miRNAs, miRs) of the viral host are key molecules in preventing viral entry and replication, and building an antiviral cellular defense. Here, we have analyzed the role of miR-155, one of the most powerful drivers of host antiviral responses including immune and inflammatory responses, in the pathogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 infection. Subsequently, we have analyzed the potency of anti-miR-155 therapy in a COVID-19 mouse model (mice transgenic for human angiotensin I- converting enzyme 2 receptor (tg-mice hACE2)). We report for the first time that miR-155 expression is elevated in COVID-19 patients. Further, our data indicate that the viral load as well as miR-155 levels are higher in male relative to female patients. Moreover, we find that the delivery of anti-miR-155 to SARS-CoV-2-infected tg-mice hACE2 effectively suppresses miR-155 expression, and leads to improved survival and clinical scores. Importantly, anti-miR-155-treated tg-mice hACE2 infected with SARS-CoV-2 not only exhibit reduced levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines, but also have increased anti-viral and anti-inflammatory cytokine responses in the lungs. Thus, our study suggests anti-miR-155 as a novel therapy for mitigating the lung cytokine storm induced by SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Molecular diversity analysis of the spike glycoprotein (S) gene from Hong Kong - China (preprint)

In this work, 37 haplotypes of spike glycoprotein of SARS-CoV-2 from Hong Kong, China, were used. All sequences were publicly available on the Platform of the National Center for Biotechnology Information (NCBI) and were analyzed for their Molecular Variance (AMOVA), haplotypic diversity, mismatch, demographic and spatial expansion, molecular diversity and time of evolutionary divergence. The results suggested that there was a low diversity among haplotypes, with very low numbers of transitions, transversions, indels-type mutations and with total absence of population expansion perceived in the neutrality tests. The estimators used in this study supported the uniformity among all the results found and confirm the evolutionary conservation of the gene, as well as its protein product, a fact that stimulates the use of therapies based on neutralizing antibodies, such as vaccines based on protein S.

The rapid, massive infection of the scientific literature and authors by COVID-19 (preprint)

ImportanceCOVID-19 is a major global crisis and the scientific community has been mobilized to deal with this crisis. ObjectiveTo estimate the extent to which the scientific workforce in different fields has been engaged publishing papers relative to the COVID-19 pandemic. Design, setting, and participantsWe evaluated Scopus (data cut, December 1, 2020) for all indexed published papers and preprints relevant to COVID-19. We mapped this COVID-19 literature in terms of its authors across 174 subfields of science according to the Science Metrix classification. We also evaluated the extent to which the most influential scientists across science (based on a composite citation indicator) had published COVID-19-related research. Finally, we assessed the features of authors who published the highest number of COVID-19 publications and of those with the highest impact in the COVID-19 field based on the composite citation indicator limited to COVID-19 publications. Main outcomes and measuresPublishing scientists (authors) and their published papers and citation impact. Results84,180 indexed publications were relevant to COVID-19 including 322,279 unique authors. The highest rates of COVID-19 publications were seen for authors classified in Public Health and in Clinical Medicine, where 11.3% (6,388/56,516) and 11.1% (92,570/833,060) of authors, respectively, had published on COVID-19. Almost all (173/174) subfields (except for Automobile Design & Engineering) had some authors publishing on COVID-19. Among active scientists at the top 2% of citation impact, 15,803 (13.3%) had published on COVID-19 in their publications in the first 11 months of 2020. The rates were the highest in the fields of Clinical Medicine (27.7%) and Public Health (26.8%). In 83 of the 174 subfields of science, at least one in ten active, influential authors in that field had authored something on COVID-19. 65 authors had already at least 30 (and up to 133) COVID-19 publications each. Among the 300 authors with the highest composite citation indicator for COVID-19 publications, 26 were journalists or editors publishing news stories or editorials in prestigious journals; most common countries for the remaining were China (n=77), USA (n=66), UK (n=27), and Italy (n=20). Conclusions and relevanceThe scientific literature and publishing scientists have been rapidly and massively infected by COVID-19 creating opportunities and challenges. There is evidence for hyper-prolific productivity.

Epidemiology and precision of SARS-CoV-2 detection following lockdown and relaxation measures (preprint)

Introduction: SARS-CoV-2-detection is critical for clinical and epidemiological assessment of the ongoing CoVID-19 pandemic. Aim: To cross-validate manual and automated high-throughput (Roche-cobas6800-Target1/Target2) testing for SARS-CoV-2-RNA, to describe detection rates following lockdown and relaxation, and to evaluate SARS-CoV-2-loads in different specimens. Method: The validation cohort prospectively compared Basel-S-gene, Roche-E-gene, and Roche-cobas6800-Target1/Target2 in 1344 naso-oropharyngeal swabs (NOPS) taken in calendar week 13 using Basel-ORF8-gene-assay for confirmation. Follow-up-cohort-1 and -2 comprised 12363 and 10207 NOPS taken over 10 weeks until calendar week 24 and 34, respectively. SARS-CoV-2-loads were compared in follow-up NOPS, lower respiratory fluids, and plasma. Results: Concordant results were obtained in 1308 cases (97%) including 97 (9%) SARS-CoV-2-positives showing high quantitative correlations (Spearman r>0.95; p<0.001) for all assays. Discordant samples (N=36) had significantly lower SARS-CoV-2-loads (p<0.001). Following lockdown, weekly detection rates declined to <1% reducing single-test positive predictive values from 99.3% to 85.1%. Following relaxation, rates flared up to 4% with similarly high SARS-CoV-2-loads, but patients were significantly younger than during lockdown (34 vs 52 years, p<0.001). SARS-CoV-2-loads in follow-up NOPS declined by 3log10 copies/mL within 10 days post-diagnosis (p<0.001). SARS-CoV-2-loads in NOPS correlated weakly with those in time-matched lower respiratory fluids and plasma, but remained detectable in 14 and 7 cases of NOPS with undetectable SARS-CoV-2, respectively. Conclusion: Evaluated manual and automated assays are highly concordant and correlate quantitatively. Following successful lockdown, declining positive predictive values require dual-target-assays for clinical and epidemiologic assessment. Confirmatory and quantitative follow-up testing should be considered within <5 days, using lower respiratory fluids in symptomatic patients with SARS-CoV-2-negative NOPS.

SARS-CoV-2 phylogeny during the early outbreak in the Basel area, Switzerland: import and spread dominated by a single B.1 lineage variant (C15324T) (preprint)

Background: The first local case of SARS-CoV-2 in Basel, Switzerland, was detected on February 26th 2020. We present a phylogenetic cross-sectional study and explore viral introduction and evolution during the exponential early phase of the local COVID-19 outbreak from February 26th until March 23rd. Methods: We sequenced SARS-CoV-2 samples from naso-oropharyngeal swabs and generated 468 high quality genomes and called variants with our COVID-19 Genome Analysis Pipeline (COVGAP). We analysed viral genetic diversity using PANGOLIN taxonomic lineages. For identification of introduction and dissemination events across the Basel area a time-calibrated phylogeny was inferred including global SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Findings: Our samples exhibit low lineage diversity compared to neighbouring countries. Lineage B.1 (82.7%), detected from March 2nd, dominated infections in Basel. A large clade within B.1 contains 69.1% of our samples, all of which carry the SNP C15324T, suggesting local transmission in spreading events. We have located the geographic origin of this mutation in our tri-national region. The remaining genomes map broadly over the global phylogenetic tree, evidencing several events of introduction from and/or dissemination to other regions of the world. Further, we have identified several transmission events within families. Interpretation: Molecular surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 by phylogenetic reconstruction in the Basel area provides important insights into local transmission (spreading events and family transmission). This phylogenetic analysis enriches epidemiological and contact tracing data, allowing connection of seemingly unconnected events and drawing conclusions, which can be used to inform public health interventions. Funding: No dedicated funding was used for this work.

Epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 Emergence Amidst Community-Acquired Respiratory Viruses (preprint)

Background. SARS-CoV-2 emerged in China in December 2019 as new cause of severe viral pneumonia (CoVID-19) reaching Europe by late January 2020. We validated the WHO-recommended assay and describe the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 and community-acquired respiratory viruses (CARVs). Methods. Naso-oropharyngeal swabs (NOPS) from 7663 individuals were prospectively tested by the Basel-S-gene and the WHO-based E-gene-assay (Roche) using Basel-N-gene-assay for confirmation. CARVs were tested in 2394 NOPS by multiplex-NAT, including 1816 together with SARS-CoV-2. Results. Basel-S-gene and Roche-E-gene-assays were concordant in 7475 cases (97.5%) including 825 (11%) positive samples. In 188 (2.5%) discordant cases, SARS-CoV-2 loads were significantly lower than in concordant positive ones and confirmed in 105 NOPS. Adults were more likely to test positive for SARS-CoV-2, while children were more likely to test CARV-positive. CARV co-infections with SARS-CoV-2 occurred in 1.8%. SARS-CoV-2 replaced other CARVs within 3 weeks reaching 48% of all detected respiratory viruses followed by rhino/enterovirus (13%), influenzavirus (12%), coronavirus (9%), respiratory syncytial (6%) and metapneumovirus (6%). Conclusions. The differential diagnosis for respiratory infections was broad during the early pandemic, affecting infection control and treatment decisions. We discuss the role of pre-existing immunity and competitive CARV replication for the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 infection among adults and children.

Effect of Systemic Inflammatory Response to SARS-CoV-2 on Lopinavir and Hydroxychloroquine Plasma Concentrations (preprint)

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) leads to inflammatory cytokine release, which can downregulate the expression of metabolizing enzymes. This cascade affects drug concentrations in the plasma. We investigated the association between lopinavir (LPV) and hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) plasma concentrations and the values of acute phase inflammation marker C-reactive protein (CRP). Methods: LPV plasma concentrations were prospectively collected in 92 patients hospitalized at our institution. Lopinavir/ritonavir was administered 12 hourly, 800/200 mg on day 1, and 400/100 mg on day 2 until day 5 or 7. HCQ was given at 800 mg, followed by 400 mg after 6, 24 and 48 hours. Hematological, liver, kidney, and inflammation laboratory values were analyzed on the day of drug level determination. Results: The median age of study participants was 59 (range 24 up to 85) years, and 71% were male. The median duration from symptom onset to hospitalization and treatment initiation was 7 days (IQR 4;10) and 8 days (IQR 5;10), respectively. The median LPV trough concentration on day 3 of treatment was 26.5 ug/mL (IQR 18.9;31.5). LPV plasma concentrations positively correlated with CRP values (r=0.37, p<0.001), and were significantly lower when tocilizumab was preadministrated. No correlation was found between HCQ concentrations and CRP values. Conclusions: High LPV plasma concentrations were observed in COVID-19 patients. The ratio of calculated unbound drug fraction to published SARS-CoV2 EC50 values indicated insufficient LPV concentrations in the lung. CRP values significantly correlated with LPV but not HCQ plasma concentrations, implying inhibition of cytochrome P450 3A4 (CYP3A4) metabolism by inflammation.

Detection of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies with a cell-free PCR assay (preprint)

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has led to more than 4 million confirmed infections worldwide and over 300,000 deaths. While Remdesivir has recently received FDA emergency use authorization for treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection, convalescent plasma (CP) with high titers of SARS-CoV-2 neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) from recovered donors remains a promising and widely accessible method to mitigate severe disease symptoms. Here, we describe the development and validation of a cell-free neutralization PCR assay using SARS-CoV-2 spike protein S1 and human ACE2 receptor-DNA conjugates. By comparing with samples collected prior to the outbreak, we confirmed that NAbs were specifically detected in COVID-19 cases. Using our unique assay, the NAb signals are detectable as early as 10 days after onset of symptoms and continue to rise, plateauing after 18 days. Notably, we showed that the use of licensed pathogen reduction technology to inactivate potentially contaminating infectious pathogens in CP did not alter NAb signals, paving a path to safely administer effective CP therapies. The described neutralization PCR assay can serve as a qualification tool to easily identify suitable CP donors of a potentially lifesaving therapy. In addition, this assay tool is readily deployable in standard laboratories with biosafety level 2 capability, and can yield results within 2-3 hr. This advancement can facilitate research on factors driving diverse COVID-19 disease manifestations, and to evaluate the impact of various CP processing protocols on CP therapeutic efficacy.

Characterising the epidemic spread of Influenza A/H3N2 within a city through phylogenetics (preprint)

Infecting large portions of the global population, seasonal influenza is a major burden on societies around the globe. While the global source sink dynamics of the different seasonal influenza viruses have been studied intensively, it’s local spread remains less clear. In order to improve our understanding of how influenza is transmitted on a city scale, we collected an extremely densely sampled set of influenza sequences alongside patient metadata. To do so, we sequenced influenza viruses isolated from patients of two different hospitals, as well as private practitioners in Basel, Switzerland during the 2016/2017 influenza season. The genetic sequences reveal that repeated introductions into the city drove the influenza season. We then reconstruct how the effective reproduction number changed over the course of the season. We find trends in transmission dynamics correlated positively with trends in temperature, but not relative humidity nor school holidays. Alongside the genetic sequence data that allows us to see how individual cases are connected, we gathered patient information, such as the age or household status. Zooming into the local transmission outbreaks suggests that the elderly were to a large extent infected within their own transmission network, while school children likely drove the spread within the remaining transmission network. These patterns will be valuable to plan interventions combating the spread of respiratory diseases within cities given that similar patterns are observed for other influenza seasons and cities. Author summary As shown with the current SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, respiratory diseases can quickly spread around the globe. While it can be hugely important to understand how diseases spread around the globe, local spread is most often the main driver of novel infections of respiratory diseases such as SARS-CoV-2 or influenza. We here use genetic sequence data alongside patient information to better understand what the drives the local spread of influenza by looking at the 2016/2017 influenza season in Basel, Switzerland as an example. The genetic sequence data allows us to reconstruct the how the transmission dynamics changed over the course of the season, which we correlate to changes, but not humidity or school holidays. Additionally, the genetic sequence data allows us to see how individual cases are connected. Using patient information, such as age and household status our analyses suggest that the elderly mainly transmit within their own transmission network. Additionally, they suggest that school aged children, but not pre-school aged children are important drivers of the local spread of influenza.

Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Antibodies in COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma using a Coronavirus Antigen Microarray (preprint)

The current practice for diagnosis of COVID-19, based on SARS-CoV-2 PCR testing of pharyngeal or respiratory specimens in a symptomatic patient at high epidemiologic risk, likely underestimates the true prevalence of infection. Serologic methods can more accurately estimate the disease burden by detecting infections missed by the limited testing performed to date. Here, we describe the validation of a coronavirus antigen microarray containing immunologically significant antigens from SARS-CoV-2, in addition to SARS-CoV, MERS-CoV, common human coronavirus strains, and other common respiratory viruses. A comparison of antibody profiles detected on the array from control sera collected prior to the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic versus convalescent blood specimens from virologically confirmed COVID-19 cases demonstrates near complete discrimination of these two groups, with improved performance from use of antigen combinations that include both spike protein and nucleoprotein. This array can be used as a diagnostic tool, as an epidemiologic tool to more accurately estimate the disease burden of COVID-19, and as a research tool to correlate antibody responses with clinical outcomes.